Diagnose a 40% increase in first month churn on HelloFresh.

A 40% increase in first-month churn at HelloFresh requires a structured diagnostic approach. I would start by clarifying the scope: is this increase across all customer segments, specific regions, or tied to a particular marketing campaign or product offering?

Potential high-level causes could include issues with the onboarding experience, delivery problems, meal quality dissatisfaction, unexpected pricing changes, or increased competitive pressure.

To investigate further, I'd examine trends over time, geographic variations, changes in platform usage or app performance, and any recent shifts in the competitive landscape or market.

My primary hypothesis would likely center on a recent change in the customer experience, such as a new recipe selection, a change in ingredient sourcing, or a disruption in the supply chain affecting delivery times or quality.

To test this, I'd analyze customer feedback (surveys, reviews, support tickets) for common complaints, segment churn data by acquisition channel and first-box experience, and compare churn rates before and after any recent operational or product changes.

If the issue is indeed related to delivery, solutions could involve optimizing logistics or partnering with more reliable carriers. If it's meal quality, we'd need to review ingredient sourcing and recipe development. If onboarding is the culprit, we'd focus on improving the initial user experience and setting clearer expectations.