To estimate the market value of Google's Project Loon, we can break down the problem into several key assumptions:
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Target Population: Start with the global population (approx. 7.5 billion). Exclude major markets with existing infrastructure or different market dynamics (e.g., China, Russia). Estimate the remaining population, then determine the percentage living in rural and remote areas (e.g., 50%). This gives us the addressable population.
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Household Penetration: Convert the addressable population into households by assuming an average household size (e.g., 4 people per household).
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Market Share and Growth: Project Google's potential market share in these areas. Consider a realistic growth rate year-over-year for adoption.
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Revenue per Household: Estimate the average annual revenue Project Loon could generate per household (e.g., $10).
Calculation Example:
- Global Population: 7.5 billion
- Population excluding China/Russia: ~5.5 billion
- Rural/Remote Population (50%): 2.75 billion
- Households (4 people/household): ~0.69 billion households
- Google's Market Share: 60%
- Households served by Google: 0.69 billion * 0.60 = ~0.41 billion households
- Annual Revenue per Household: $10
- Estimated Annual Market Value: 0.41 billion households * $10/household = $4.1 billion
This calculation provides a rough estimate. A more robust analysis would involve detailed market research on internet penetration, affordability, competitive landscape, and the specific pricing models Project Loon might employ.
Gusto